Deep-dive breakdowns across teams, systems, and market patterns
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Home ice advantage in the NHL is real, measurable, and exploitable. Across 8,528 NHL regular-season games in our six-season dataset, home teams win 53.8% of the time — but the best home venues dramatically outperform that baseline. Carolina Hurricanes leads all NHL teams with a 70% home win rate over the last three seasons. Our model encodes a 50-point Elo home advantage and then layers in goalie matchups, rest differentials, and travel distance. When our model agrees with the home-ice lean, the signal is strongest — High-confidence home moneyline plays hit at 57%+ in backtests.
Mar 17
NHL home teams win 53.8% overall — but the top venues hit 64–70%
One-goal games account for 39.0% of NHL results — model edge matters on ML, not just spreads
Carolina Hurricanes: 87-37 home (70% WR, +1.00 avg margin)
Winnipeg Jets: 88-40 home (69% WR, +1.04 avg margin)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 82-41 home (67% WR, +1.28 avg margin)
Vegas Golden Knights: 82-43 home (66% WR, +0.80 avg margin)
Model: home ice + rest advantage = strongest moneyline signal in our NHL ensemble
Our NBA XGBoost ensemble has identified Pistons ML as today's highest-edge play. The model assigns 86% win probability against a market implied of 45%, generating a raw edge of +40.7 percentage points. Pistons carry a 86% win probability per our model. Pistons hold a +18.6 net rating advantage per 100 possessions. Elo model gives Pistons a 319-point quality edge. This type of market disagreement — where our model significantly outweighs the consensus line — has historically correlated with above-average cover rates in our backtest.
Mar 17