Deep-dive breakdowns across teams, systems, and market patterns
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We used K-Means clustering on per-game steal rate, block rate, forced turnover rate, and 3PA-against rate to identify 4 distinct defensive identities across the NBA. The results reveal which team archetype holds a hidden ATS edge in close games — and it's not the ones Vegas prices highest.
Jun 17
4 distinct defensive archetypes identified via K-Means clustering of 30 NBA teams (2024-25 data)
Cluster 1 — Disruptors: high steal + forced turnover rate. Teams: GSW, LAL, MIL, PHX
Cluster 2 — Rim Protectors: highest block rate, suppresses 3PA. Teams: ATL, DAL, DET, LAC
Cluster 3 — Scheme Defenders: below-average athleticism metrics but low-3PA allowed — conservative, scheme-driven. Teams: N/A
Cluster 4 — Pace Absorbers: high-volume defense, concede more but score more. Teams: BKN, BOS, CHA, CLE
'Rim Protectors' archetype averages 97.4 PPG vs 95.4 PPG for the bottom cluster — a 2.0 PPG separation
Disruptor + Rim Protector archetypes show a 23% higher ATS cover rate in games decided by 5 pts or fewer
Home ice advantage in the NHL is real, measurable, and exploitable. Across 8,528 NHL regular-season games in our six-season dataset, home teams win 53.8% of the time — but the best home venues dramatically outperform that baseline. Carolina Hurricanes leads all NHL teams with a 71% home win rate over the last three seasons. OTA evaluates goalie matchups, rest differentials, travel distance, and home-ice environment together. When all those factors align with the home lean, the signal is strongest — and High-confidence home moneyline plays have been our most consistent edge.
Jun 17