Trends

Data-driven edges and market patterns — updated daily

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Situational Edges

Historically profitable spots — cover rate and sample size included

Moneyline Value — Model Divergence 15%+

Strong

When our model's win probability exceeds the market ML-implied probability by 15+ percentage points, the model is seeing something the market has not yet priced in. These plays hit at a 57.1% ML win rate in NBA backtests.

57W – 43L(100 games)
57%

Blowout Home Favorites (Model Edge 15%+)

Strong

When our NBA XGBoost ensemble gives a home team 70%+ win probability against a spread of -10 or greater, it represents a clear talent mismatch. Model High-confidence spread plays at home cover at a 57.1% rate in our backtest.

57W – 43L(100 games)
57%

ATS Records

Against-the-spread performance, current season — sorted by cover rate

Cover % by Team (Top 15)

≥55% (Hot) 50–54% <50% (Cold)
30%45%60%75%CHAMIABOSPHXSASDENLACNYKNOPUTAPHIDETPORLALATL50%
TeamATS RecordTrendCover %
#1Charlotte Hornets(CHA)
41-23Hot
64%
#2Miami Heat(MIA)
38-25-1Hot
60%
#3Boston Celtics(BOS)
37-26Hot
59%
Phoenix Suns(PHX)
37-26Hot
59%
San Antonio Spurs(SAS)
35-27-2Neutral
57%
Denver Nuggets(DEN)
35-29Neutral
55%
LA Clippers(LAC)
34-28Neutral
55%
New York Knicks(NYK)
36-29Neutral
55%
New Orleans Pelicans(NOP)
35-29-1Neutral
55%
Utah Jazz(UTA)
34-29Neutral
54%
Philadelphia 76ers(PHI)
33-28-1Neutral
54%
Detroit Pistons(DET)
32-29Neutral
53%
Portland Trail Blazers(POR)
33-31Neutral
52%
Los Angeles Lakers(LAL)
33-30Neutral
52%
Atlanta Hawks(ATL)
32-31Neutral
51%
Memphis Grizzlies(MEM)
29-32Neutral
48%
Toronto Raptors(TOR)
30-32Neutral
48%
Oklahoma City Thunder(OKC)
31-33Neutral
48%
Dallas Mavericks(DAL)
29-34Neutral
46%
Chicago Bulls(CHI)
28-34-1Cold
45%
Houston Rockets(HOU)
28-34Cold
45%
Golden State Warriors(GSW)
28-34Cold
45%
Brooklyn Nets(BKN)
27-35Cold
44%
Indiana Pacers(IND)
28-35Cold
44%
Milwaukee Bucks(MIL)
27-34Cold
44%
Orlando Magic(ORL)
26-35Cold
43%
Minnesota Timberwolves(MIN)
27-36Cold
43%
Cleveland Cavaliers(CLE)
27-36Cold
43%
Washington Wizards(WAS)
26-36Cold
42%
Sacramento Kings(SAC)
24-40Cold
38%

Cover Rate vs Sample Size

Reliability map — larger dot = more confident edge

Games Played vs Cover %

020406080Games Played30%50%70%90%100%Break-even

Distribution of Cover Rates

<45%45–49%50–54%55–59%60–69%70%+02468Teams
Elite (≥60%)ProfitableBelow avg

Totals Trends

Over/under hit rates by scenario — pace, rest, and situational contexts

No totals data yet for NBA.